Introduction
In a world that is constantly changing due to technology, social change and environmental factors, the ability to think about the future is becoming increasingly important. In this blog article I will collect some methods and frameworks to introduce the principles of future design thinking.
Speculative design is a method that enables us to reflect on current issues by imagining future scenarios. Its purpose is not to provide concrete solutions to existing problems, but to explore possible, often way out there future scenarios. This design approach questions existing social, ethical and technological structures. The nature of the scenarios encourages discourse and reflection.
Speculative design
Speculative design is an approach that aims to visualize alternative futures instead of focusing solely on optimizing existing systems. The term was coined by designers Anthony Dunne and Fiona Raby. In their book Speculative Everything (2013), they describe how design can be used as a tool to stimulate discussions about future developments. The focus is not on the benefits of a design, but on its ability to reveal new perspectives.
Instead of looking for practical solutions, speculative design asks “what if?” questions. For example: What if user data belonged entirely to the users, with full control over its use? Questions like this give rise to scenarios that challenge our understanding of progress.
Speculative design offers a framework to:
- Encourage Social Dreaming
- Expand Perspectives
- Foster Critical Thinking
- Inspire Innovation
Speculative design uses various methods to make future scenarios tangible:
- Prototypes and artefacts Physical objects or digital concepts are often developed that represent a fictitious future. These artifacts appear real and make it possible to think about their consequences.
- Design fiction Design fiction combines speculative design with narrative elements. Alternative realities are made tangible through stories, fictional news articles or advertisements.
- Experiments and installations Interactive installations or simulations allow users to experience new future scenarios and react to them emotionally.
- Provocative concepts Some speculative designs are deliberately provocative or dystopian in order to trigger discussions about ethical or social issues.
The Future Cone
The Future Cone is a model that categorizes different future scenarios and helps to analyze long-term developments. It is based on the idea that the future is not fixed, but rather a spectrum of possible developments. The model is often used in futurology, speculative design and strategic planning. The model helps not only to predict a “linear” future, but also to consider alternative paths. With the help of the Future Cone, we can ask ourselves: What future do we want? Which trends should we promote or prevent? What unexpected developments do we need to think about? By speculating on different scenarios and asking these questions, we can shape a more conscious, sustainable and inclusive future.
The Future Cone represents the present as a starting point and opens up into the future like a fan. The entirety of the cone represents all potential futures. It divides possible developments into different categories:
Plausible futures (plausible futures)
These futures are based on current trends, scientific findings and technological developments. They are realistic, but not guaranteed. Example: The progressive automation of jobs.
Probable futures (likely futures)
These are the futures that are most likely to occur if existing trends continue unchanged. Example: The further expansion of artificial intelligence in everyday life.
Possible futures (possible futures)
These scenarios include developments that are theoretically feasible but seem less likely because they depend on radical breakthroughs or unforeseeable events. Example: The complete abolition of the monetary system through a new form of economy.
Preferable futures (desirable futures)
This category includes futures that we should actively strive for because they bring positive social or environmental change. Example: A world with sustainable energy and fair distribution of resources.
Criticism
While speculative design offers many benefits, it is not without its critics. Some argue that it risks becoming too abstract or disconnected from real-world concerns and has little impact on everyday life. Others see speculative design only as a creative exercise without bringing about actual change.
Conclusion
Speculative design and similiar methods offer a way to explore trends to promote and prevent for our future. It helps us to define what kind of future we would like to create. It helps to identify opportunities and risks at an early stage.
By opening up new perspectives speculative design can stimulate reflection. Companies, scientists and policy makers can benefit from this method to make sustainable, ethical and future-oriented decisions.
Speculative design is an invitation to actively shape the future. That is why I believe it to be an important practice, even though it does not solve current problems it sparks thought processes. The skillset we are building at FH to create immersive and interactive work in an exhibition setting would apply nicely to such a design process and practice.
Links
https://dunneandraby.co.uk/content/books/690/0